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What Will Cause The Next Recession - Michelle Meyer On Elevated Risks

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Bank of America's Head of U.S. Economics Michelle Meyer predicts a slower economy in 2019 compared to last year. A slowing global economy, especially from China, is likely to have an impact on the United States. But despite the risks being higher, the economic data shows an imminent recession may not be in the cards. She also explains why wages have improved despite an aging population. "The labor market is tight," she says. And it's not just for high-skilled workers, but for lower income jobs as well. Watch the video above to hear more from Bank of America's Head of U.S. Economics Michelle Meyer. » Subscribe to CNBC: http://cnb.cx/SubscribeCNBC About CNBC: From 'Wall Street' to 'Main Street' to award winning original documentaries and Reality TV series, CNBC has you covered. Experience special sneak peeks of your favorite shows, exclusive video and more. Connect with CNBC News Online Get the latest news: http://www.cnbc.com/ Follow CNBC on LinkedIn: https://cnb.cx/LinkedInCNBC Follow CNBC News on Facebook: http://cnb.cx/LikeCNBC Follow CNBC News on Twitter: http://cnb.cx/FollowCNBC Follow CNBC News on Google+: http://cnb.cx/PlusCNBC Follow CNBC News on Instagram: http://cnb.cx/InstagramCNBC #CNBC #TheNextRecession What Will Cause The Next Recession - Michelle Meyer On Elevated Risks
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Text Comments (314)
Adrian Rodriguez (11 days ago)
What about US housing prices being bloated? Doesn't anyone in finance see that US residents & citizens cant responsibility afford housing, and are forced to pay an unfair portion of income becuase everyone needs a place to live...
Jeff Lovejoy (16 days ago)
Since the US economy never left the last Great Recession how can it possibly enter another recession? What comes next will be much, much worse than anything this country or the world has ever experienced. There is only one reason to have Great Depressions. It is to have another, and even greater, "Great Depression(s)." Doubling Down is the new economic theory.
jonny parker (17 days ago)
I m talking abt my basement rent . Ohh boy
Spartacus547 (28 days ago)
Not seeing indicators because everybody's on contract, Uber left Postmates contractors app gig economy bulshit, all these companies were employed people they would be laying off thousands and thousands a month
craigmichansen (28 days ago)
I cant't believe anything cbs abc fox or any other main stream media. Now they are invading my computer.
Dwight Vietzke (1 month ago)
...the top tiers of the economy are gaining in double or triple digits, so on average the economy is doing fine "for them", whether you see any of it or not.
Tres (1 month ago)
What planet is she talking about, because it sure isn't earth.
DeadNerve47 (1 month ago)
American thinking: Blame China for everything!
peterdanis87 (1 month ago)
It's not us it's China... don't know about that. Wink at retiring baby boomers ;)
Qwerty Asdfg (1 month ago)
The real inflation rate is probably around 7%.
D 1080 (1 month ago)
Buy Bitcoin!
Fubar : (1 month ago)
Women economists..... things are looking pretty ok .... things looked pretty ok in 2006 as well .... okier than it is now ... hahahaaa.... Judging by what happened in the subprime crisis... you are not that good as you think ...l
Damian Lander (1 month ago)
Michelle Meyer 2008 @ Lehmann Brothers: They are clearly no risks.... XD
Chris evo (1 month ago)
Yeah I’m def not taking advice investment advice from a bank employee. On an unrelated note, she’s kinda cute
Gregory Berndt (1 month ago)
You live in a bubble... Jesus didn’t talk to the kings he walked with the people and understood the real issues... this country has turned into the reasons people fled to America.
Meno Passini (1 month ago)
The foreign markets are slowing. But We are repeating what got us into the last housing bubble. Selling homes to famlies that can't afford them. Bank of America's new $5 Billion program for Low income buyers. Bush warned about this in 2003. I was building homes at the time and quickly sold out. Funny how this Economist works for Bank of America and her Co. is making risky loans. Bush called it. https://youtu.be/LPSDnGMzIdo
club2udjsmelbourne (1 month ago)
What’s fascinating, is how lovely they are getting when they are trotted out for the public
jayjayhere fre (1 month ago)
you expect me to believe the b.s. this bank employee is spewing. lmao
M (1 month ago)
I was about to complain that she sounds incredibly young but I’m glad she didn’t take the Theranos speech class. Go ‘head, woman!
shingadelic (1 month ago)
Not sure why men labor participation rate has not bounced back to its previous high? Maybe the jobs that were automated were usually labor intensive jobs like manufacturing, which were predominantly occupied by men?
PMoose Traven (1 month ago)
Opinion: Reason why birth rates in decline? The reason why men labor participation is lower than before? The reason there are higher student loan debt and less grant aid offered? I have one answer for all of them, but no one likes the answer. Women entering the workforce and not bearing children. I know that sounds terrible, but think about it. Fewer children are born because companies are not offering maternity leave and women want a career, hence no kids. Men and women competing for the same number of jobs as before mean that the male labor participation rate will drop. That is just the facts of how the job system works. The reason why there are more loans than aid? Well, that is a variety of factors, one of which is that more people, meaning the addition of another gender causing less aid to be offered as there is higher enrollment. Women are going to college more than ever before, which means less aid for everyone. Change causes change. This is the result of that change.
Onome Uwhubetine (1 month ago)
Why do always look at job creation in such a shallow way? I’d like to know whether theses jobs are hourly or salaried? Do these jobs have goid benefits such as health care and 401k match? Are the people receiving these jobs being paid that would allow them to spend less than 30% on cost of living?
braddockakalatis2 (1 month ago)
So is it fair to say that the fundamentals of our economy are strong?
Nastynasthat 2017 (1 month ago)
she is ..........beautiful!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Nastynasthat 2017 (1 month ago)
PMoose Traven don’t you dare she comes from the gods
PMoose Traven (1 month ago)
but very very stupid.
Thomas Ding (1 month ago)
She sounds like she got an answer for every economic issue. That worries me.
Chris Reynolds (1 month ago)
She didn't mention healthcare, education, underemployment or housing so...
xuimod (1 month ago)
She's looks like an ASMR YouTuber.
Jen H (1 month ago)
how about getting some economists on who have seen a few economic cycles.. instead of just 1.... that's how we keep getting into f'd up situations..
Jeffrey Kalb (1 month ago)
It's already here.
CONTENDER791 (1 month ago)
Of course there will be a recession ,a Republican is in office.
Nicolas (1 month ago)
colin schabel (2 months ago)
This perky chick is blind a bat
Michael Ziegler (2 months ago)
I keep hearing a meteor is going to hit the earth, but it might not happen yet! The doom and gloom from the anti-Americans is amazing.
R. B.L. (2 months ago)
Bank of America was bailed out by Public money - that is socialsim Corp socialism The Millenials are paid too little to be able to boost the economy with car and home purchases in fact they are struggling to pay student debt some for more than 10 years while they live in parents basement or their 10-year old beater. so since housing and auto stales are key parts of the economy this is very bad news. (GM closures make sense now) but this is only the tip of the iceburge - baby boomers are due to all retire during the next 12 years but how will that huge Old Age Security payments be funded > this is estimated to be a 70 Trillion dollar unfunded liability - so we are facing an increasing cost during declining revenue - and Trumps Tax cuts has accellerated this problem it will hit a wall of insustainabiility in less than 10 years - but Trump will be like 90 then and will not GAS
R. B.L. (2 months ago)
Sorry kid you are all wet - even with labour shortages US workers are not gaining on wage rates - they are losing, and dont pretent that income inequaltity in the world is anything like the US the GINI index of the UN shows the US wage inequaltiy is an order of magnitude higher than ANY other G20 country so don't lie to us,
nykfeng (2 months ago)
Because jobs for those men were automated away!
ProPaleo (3 months ago)
Can you trust a woman tearing up on camera while giving an analysis on the state of our economy and describing it as good?
candymr2 (3 months ago)
Every time I see this woman, I realize why wall street is so stupid. They have people like her working there
Jim Mon (3 months ago)
Employment is lagging, Retail is lagging, Yield Curve is leading.
Mike L (3 months ago)
I haven’t watch the video yet. I’m sure she starts by saying everything is great for now. All BS!!!!!
ThaiEgho (3 months ago)
I'd enter your next recession Michelle ;)
MASTER BLASTER (3 months ago)
She crying because her liberal leader Hillary Clinton lost - she really saying I'm going to talk down the economy so that a female socialist like Elizabeth Warren can win in 2020 - which all means Trump wins in a landslide in 2020 and the Dow goes to 30,000
Akbar, Allard Freichmann (3 months ago)
Corruption and corporate greed.
B Patrick (3 months ago)
After watching this millennial, "head of BofA's economics", I'm thinking it's time to pull my savings and go with another bank. While she was twirling at Boston at the age of 20, my family took out a loan with Countrywide. BofA's crown jewel. BofA's Countrywide was the, "lender" that fueled the great recession feeding their loans to Leaman Bros. This gal running her jaws about economics is similar to a tree sloth heckling slow horses at the track.
Malibu 340 (3 months ago)
The data is always behind by months. If your out in the real world like most of us you already know we’re headed for recession. I wonder if she has read the comments section? These guys are so far detached.
Eric Wedin (3 months ago)
How about all different debt bubbles? How about new QE and most likely lowered interest rates? How about tweeked unemployment rates?
Verne Fits (3 months ago)
Michelle is cute 💕💕
MrPzoe (3 months ago)
Can you explain why all these big companies closing down. If the economy so great.
Threat Assessment (3 months ago)
Men between 25- 54 have drastically decreased from the workforce as women have slightly increased And THEY don’t know why 🤣
Michael Furry (1 month ago)
The reason is simple. You can pay women less and they will take it. Men would burn down the building.
Ao Chen (1 month ago)
And somehow unemployment rate is low yet working age men have not fully joined to the workforce. Jobs growth with little wage growth. Previous house wives and retirees are pushed into the workforce by increased cost of living? Jobs increase does not include those that required physical strength, construction workers, factory workers? These are just some speculations of my own. I'm hoping to see more people sharing their thoughts.
Threat Assessment (3 months ago)
Another spinstress daughter of a rabbi running things they don’t understand !
Norbert Chong (3 months ago)
Honda have just shut a factory in the UK....... so things not going good in UK.
Alex Silva (3 months ago)
Ford has just announced that will shut down one factory here in Brazil as well. The things are bad everywhere.
Clara Morgan (3 months ago)
I have make alot of BTC from fabulous hackers these guys are saving souls.
The Maestro (3 months ago)
She's cute
Travis Li - Rufus (3 months ago)
Never trust woman, she lies so much, no wonder she has her job
uawsux (3 months ago)
We are going to inflate everything forever we're going to inflate this is why the stock market knows it's going to go up or going to inflate real estate prices this is why all these corporations are buying all the real estate and rental prices have doubled they know it but this also means gold has to go up but it only goes up 4% you will only go up the rate of inflation Pension funds were like this because bonds and stock stabilize all stabilized because of regulated inflation butt inflation is inflation you're either way the purchasing power subtly quietly destroying purchasing power for those on fixed incomes welfare all those illegal aliens on EBT cards
uawsux (3 months ago)
Why would you even listen to anybody from Bank of America or Wells Fargo just because Warren Buffett likes them doesn't mean they're a good investment
Briana Lopez (3 months ago)
she is clearly from the Lehman Brothers era
Da C. (3 months ago)
What will cause the next recession? Probably the far left obstructing our government.
UnhingedBecauseLucid (3 months ago)
5:11 - 5:46 Yes... clearly. [cough] Moral hazard ? Clearly that too though...
No DAD Not Tonight (3 months ago)
Is she crying
Ryan Shaeffer (3 months ago)
massive corporate debt, massive student debt, massive national debt, massive credit card debt, unemployment bottomed heading up, i mean what could go wrong???
Ryan Shaeffer (3 months ago)
its all fake economy built on massive debt, what can go wrong right?? how about when layoff pickup and people start defaulting! dont listen to these people saying "oh we see a slight slowdown but everything is good right now" its not slow downs pick up steam, get the F out now!
Ryan Shaeffer (3 months ago)
the economy growth is all debt with credit cards and loans, this is a joke, people are dumb! its artificially inflated even worse then 2008!
Michel van de Pol (3 months ago)
bimbo has no cliue what she is talking about
candymr2 (3 months ago)
Exactly. Her boss is probably trying to bang her, because she didnt get hired for her intelligence
G6 Browser (3 months ago)
hey babe want to be my girlfriend
Seadog95 (3 months ago)
Id smash
junior Kamwa (3 months ago)
Talking too fast. shhhs
oterenceo (3 months ago)
She is so hot!
Douglas Thompson (3 months ago)
I want her to laugh maniacally and say "I'll get you my little pretty"!!!
hotneo7 (3 months ago)
Baby Boomers is going to cause the next Great Depression: what made them rich their whole life they are now cashing out for retirement...housing...stocks...everything.
Jen H (1 month ago)
there's not enough people to buy their homes... Gen x nope... millenials-no money to.... some of the boomers brought this on themselves... if you take all for you and leave nothing for future generations... this is what you get.
TheGooglySmoog (3 months ago)
I greatly doubt her credentials. She is not wearing a robe or a wizard hat.
antonio bortoni (3 months ago)
Once you work at the top, you don't want to go back to be a slave of life.
jayanta biswas (3 months ago)
She looks gorgeous
Matt Woodruff (3 months ago)
The world economy is being held up by a crutch. and she is completely ignoring this glaring fact. Too much debt! Everyone is leverage to the hilt. But it's
ForestNinjaZero (3 months ago)
Illiteracy, and persistent efforts of criminal partners of the U.S. Military to cover the history of their malicious practices will cause the recession. It has already begun, and you will have lost your land entirely before there will be any possibility of recovery.
SayNoToIdiots (3 months ago)
What she is saying contradicts Trump. Trump thinks China slowdown wouldn't affect US.
Mitch Prime (3 months ago)
Well informed, intelligent thoughts on the state of the economy. Thanks Michelle.
LostMySauce (3 months ago)
It’s still a little weird that a lot of people would sell off late last year. It’s been proven time and time again that holding is better in the long term. A lot of us saw Q4 2018 as a sale
Cheok CG (3 months ago)
MENTES LIVRES (3 months ago)
Burton L (3 months ago)
Well what do you know? Trump actually delivered jobs.
alex r. (2 months ago)
Burton L Lol and he is about to lose them all and then some. They are going to blame your boy too.
Robby Bobby Robby (3 months ago)
She looks like a junkie
benz806 (3 months ago)
This chick knows nothing. She was probably in high school in 2008.
g0neplatinum (3 months ago)
is the trade war a disguise for something else going on we should all know?
panchito1993eljc (3 months ago)
orange man bad, orange man bad...
Louis Andrews Smith (3 months ago)
You want to know why this recession is going to be bad, and what will cause it? Look at Quantitative Easing and asset market inflation (why CPI has stayed the same). Look at the debt corporations and individuals have and where on earth interest rates are going to go from here. And then look at Trump, where this will all be blamed.
Lost Thoughts (3 months ago)
We believe you 😉
Dan Woods (3 months ago)
The unparalleled wealthy greed and ignorance will be the cause of the fall of America....we could help save America by getting rid of Trump and taxing the wealthy 70%....that would help
Aloe Vera (3 months ago)
If the recession hits she won’t be able to fix those forehead wrinkles
ecoRfan (3 months ago)
My issue will be similar to the previous meltdown: housing. A recession for those who don't know is a period where the economy does not grow. The core problem will be young people unable to afford homeownership. This will be due to student loan debts, and will impact even people with decent-paying career jobs. A huge chunk of the nation's economy is dependent on homeownership with its products sold. New cars and trucks have gotten prohibitively expensive which will also hurt the auto industry. This in addition to the limited money that young people will be able to spend on consumer products will create a slowdown, and in turn, a shrinking of the economy for awhile. And that's just the US.
PMoose Traven (1 month ago)
HA! This is all true. I don't want to own a house. I don't want a new car. I don't want to put on more debt... I think America is heading toward socialism.
Joe (3 months ago)
I wanna bang
Austrian Economics (3 months ago)
Everything. It’s called the everything bubble for a reason. The job market is irrelevant, tens in trillions of debt will eventually become unmanageable. It will collapse at some point, and with it, the dollar and the U.S. and global economy.
Peter Francis (3 months ago)
China housing bubble
Charles Nicklestein (3 months ago)
AOC. Cortez will cause the next recession. That is all.
Commando Master (3 months ago)
The real takeaways would be interest rates are going up, house prices/stock prices are going down, and cash will be better off in a savings account than on the market.
Chris G (1 month ago)
+Ao Chen Just like during the last recession, gold was the way to go, but not for long. Even that didnt last forever.
Ao Chen (1 month ago)
If dollar drops cash is no good either. Gold is the way to go.
Parimal , (3 months ago)
Non sense video. She was with Lehman Bros in 2008, LoL. Zero credibility to what she says.
ecoRfan (3 months ago)
Shady milf
Николай Помещенко (3 months ago)
I think China prepare a bubble 4 us. And i believe USA do best.
ohplezz (3 months ago)
Its all about the fed.
Sonny August (3 months ago)
They look like tears but they are scars.
Rigor Mortise (3 months ago)
Public Relations at its best.
Chris Reynolds (1 month ago)
Yeah she's hot!
TJ Marx (3 months ago)
lol. None of the slowing in China is about the "trade war", China has far bigger things it's dealing with than the USA that only represents a tiny fraction of it's exports.
CONTENDER791 (1 month ago)
TJ Marx A tiny fraction of China exports go to U.S. ? Try about 30% , hardly a tiny fraction
TheGr8stManEvr (3 months ago)
Adlin Ling (3 months ago)
When a neighbor loses his Job it's recession. When you lose yours, it's depression.